COT Weekly Positioning: Three new reversal-risk extremes in gasoline, soybeans and Ultra Bond
factors
2026-10-14 18:40:00
Related:30-Day Fed Funds30-Year T-BondAustralian Dollar COTAustralian Dollar to US DollarBritish Pound COTBritish Pound to US DollarCFTC Commitments of TradersCocoaCocoa COTCopper COTEuro COTEuro US DollarFed Funds COTGasoline RBOBGoldGold COTHeating Oil COTHigh Grade CopperMexican Peso COTMexican Peso to US DollarNasdaq 100 COTNasdaq 100 E-MiniNY Harbor ULSD (Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel)Orange Juice COTOrange Juice FuturesRBOB Gasoline COTRussell 2000 COTRussell 2000 E-MiniSoybeanSoybeans COTUltra Bond COTUltra T-BondUS 30Y Bond COT
RBOB Gasoline, Soybeans and Ultra Bond flashed new Reversal risk (down) signals as speculators hit fresh 5-year long extremes against commercial short extremes.
Why it matters: Reversal risk is the strongest COT reading: speculators are one-sided while hedgers sit at the opposite extreme. 13 of 40 markets carry a signal and 12 sit at 5-year extremes (data as of Tue 2026-10-06, released Fri 2026-10-09).
Biggest weekly swings in speculator positioning (5y percentile points)
-28
+25
+17
-16
+15
+14
+12
The details
- ▸New reversal risk. RBOB Gasoline specs at the 91st percentile (z 1.14), Soybeans 94th (z 1.21), Ultra Bond 93rd (z 1.27). Commercials sit at the 5th, 3rd and 3rd percentiles. All three are new 5-year extremes.
- ▸Equities stay stretched. Nasdaq 100 specs at the 100th percentile, z up to 2.44 from 1.98 after adding 10,768 contracts: the most crowded long on the board. Russell 2000 is the mirror image: Rebound risk (up) at the 2nd percentile, z -1.88.
- ▸FX shorts deepen. Euro specs added 34,455 net shorts to the 0 percentile (z -2.32); British Pound also at 0 (z -1.93). Both carry Rebound risk (up).
- ▸Fed Funds flip to long. Net swung 143,295 contracts to +82,669 as specs cut 170,412 shorts. Percentile jumped 25 points to 89.
- ▸Metals cool. Gold keeps Reversal risk (down) at the 97th percentile (z 1.59) but specs cut 8,602 net. Copper downgraded from Reversal risk (down) to Longs unwinding after a 15,980-contract cut; z fell to 1.38 from 1.84.
- ▸Softs shorts. Orange Juice upgraded from Crowded short to Rebound risk (up) at the 8th percentile. Cocoa keeps Rebound risk (up) at the 5th.
- ▸Biggest swings elsewhere. Australian Dollar -28 points to the 42nd percentile (net -35,484); Mexican Peso -16 to the 22nd (net -41,711); US 30Y Bond +17 to the 38th; Sugar +14 to the 86th on 58,061 net buying.
What's next: Watch whether the three new reversal signals survive a second week or fade toward Longs unwinding, as Copper did. Watch whether Nasdaq 100 specs keep adding and whether Euro and Pound shorts start covering. Extremes can persist for weeks; price confirmation matters.
Bottom line: Positioning risk is concentrated in crowded longs (Nasdaq 100, Gold, plus three new extremes) and deep shorts (Euro, Pound, Russell 2000). That flags risk, not timing.
Markets in this report: Heating Oil · RBOB Gasoline · Copper · Gold · Soybeans · Cocoa · Orange Juice · Fed Funds · US 30Y Bond · Ultra Bond · Euro · British Pound · Australian Dollar · Mexican Peso · Nasdaq 100 · Russell 2000
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Legacy report (futures and options combined). Positioning ranked against the last 5 years of weekly reports. Positioning describes risk, not timing.