COT Weekly Positioning: Speculators Dump 10Y Notes as Two Signals Fade
factors
2026-10-16 22:01:00
Related:10-Year T-NoteBritish Pound COTBritish Pound to US DollarCFTC Commitments of TradersCocoaCocoa COTEuro COTEuro US DollarGasoline RBOBGoldGold COTHeating Oil COTNasdaq 100 COTNasdaq 100 E-MiniNew Zealand Dollar to US DollarNY Harbor ULSD (Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel)NZ Dollar COTOrange Juice COTOrange Juice FuturesRBOB Gasoline COTRussell 2000 COTRussell 2000 E-MiniSoybeanSoybeans COTUltra 10-Year T-NoteUltra 10Y Note COTUltra Bond COTUltra T-BondUS 10Y Note COT
Speculators cut 145,164 net US 10Y Note contracts, the week's biggest positioning swing.
Why it matters: Nine of 40 markets sit at 5-year extremes, and eight carry the strongest readings, Reversal risk (down) or Rebound risk (up). Crowded positioning raises the odds of sharp moves against the crowd, but it says nothing about timing.
Biggest weekly swings in speculator positioning (5y percentile points)
-26
+23
-21
-21
-17
-12
-8
The details
- ▸Rates selling broadened. 10Y Note speculators fell to -987,276 net, 21st percentile (-26 pts). Ultra 10Y dropped -56,095 to the 41st percentile (-21). Ultra Bond fell -44,787 to the 72nd percentile (-21), and its Reversal risk (down) signal cleared as z eased from 1.27 to 0.96.
- ▸Nasdaq 100 still the top equity risk. Reversal risk (down) holds with specs at the 96th percentile and commercials at the 1st. Specs trimmed 12,482 net and z cooled from 2.44 to 1.74.
- ▸Russell 2000 shorts covered hard. Specs added 27,312 net, jumping 23 pts to the 25th percentile. Z moved from -1.88 to -0.78, and last week's Rebound risk (up) is gone.
- ▸Euro is the most crowded short on the board. Specs sit at the 0th percentile (z -2.48) and added 11,799 more shorts to -162,986 net; commercials are at the 100th. British Pound mirrors it: specs 0th percentile (z -1.95), commercials 100th. Both flag Rebound risk (up).
- ▸Commodity longs stretched. Reversal risk (down) persists in RBOB Gasoline (97th percentile, z up to 1.58 from 1.14), Gold (96th, z 1.54) and Soybeans (91st, specs cut 17,954). Commercials sit at the 1st, 3rd and 6th percentiles.
- ▸Commodity shorts stretched too. Cocoa (7th percentile, z -1.6) and Orange Juice (8th, z -1.71) carry Rebound risk (up). Heating Oil stays a Crowded short at the 5th percentile.
- ▸Antipodean FX shorts grew. NZ Dollar specs added 17,411 shorts (25th percentile, -17 pts) and Australian Dollar 18,644 (30th, -12).
What's next: Watch whether Nasdaq 100 z keeps sliding toward clearing, as Russell 2000 and Ultra Bond did this week, and whether Euro shorts keep building. A second week of heavy 10Y Note selling would push it toward extreme territory. Extremes can persist for weeks; price confirmation matters.
Bottom line: No new signals or extremes this week, but eight high-conviction readings remain, led by crowded Euro and Pound shorts and stretched Nasdaq, Gold and RBOB longs.
Markets in this report: Heating Oil · RBOB Gasoline · Gold · Soybeans · Cocoa · Orange Juice · US 10Y Note · Ultra 10Y Note · Ultra Bond · Euro · British Pound · NZ Dollar · Nasdaq 100 · Russell 2000
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Legacy report (futures and options combined). Positioning ranked against the last 5 years of weekly reports. Positioning describes risk, not timing.