COT Weekly Positioning: Fed Funds Longs Jump to a 5-Year Extreme
factors
2026-10-23 22:01:00
Related:30-Day Fed FundsBritish Pound COTBritish Pound to US DollarCFTC Commitments of TradersEuro COTEuro US DollarFed Funds COTGasoline RBOBGoldGold COTHeating Oil COTNasdaq 100 COTNasdaq 100 E-MiniNatural GasNatural Gas COTNY Harbor ULSD (Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel)Orange Juice COTOrange Juice FuturesRBOB Gasoline COTRussell 2000 COTRussell 2000 E-MiniSilverSilver COTSoybeanSoybeans COTUltra 10-Year T-NoteUltra 10Y Note COTUltra Bond COTUltra T-Bond
Speculators piled 227,102 net contracts into Fed Funds futures in one week, pushing positioning to the 99th percentile of its 5-year range and triggering a new Reversal risk (down).
Why it matters: When speculators and commercials sit at opposite 5-year extremes, the trade is one-sided, and any reversal can be sharp. Nine of 40 markets now carry a signal, and all nine are at 5-year extremes.
Biggest weekly swings in speculator positioning (5y percentile points)
+25
+22
-16
-13
-13
+12
-12
The details
- ▸Rates: Fed Funds is the new headline. Spec net long rose to 307,293 (11.1% of open interest). The z-score jumped from 1.18 to 2.37. Commercials sit at the 1st percentile (z -2.44). Open interest grew 301,440.
- ▸Energy: Natural Gas turns. It is a new Rebound risk (up). Specs are net short 242,693 (10th percentile, z -1.42). Commercials are at the 96th percentile. RBOB Gasoline holds Reversal risk (down), but specs trimmed 5,908 and the z-score eased from 1.58 to 1.21. Heating Oil remains a Crowded short at the 5th percentile.
- ▸Metals and equities: long extremes persist. Gold keeps Reversal risk (down) at the 91st percentile, though specs cut 7,942. Nasdaq 100 keeps Reversal risk (down) at the 98th percentile, and specs are still adding (+2,693, z 1.93).
- ▸FX: shorts remain crowded. Euro specs are at the 1st percentile (z -2.43), with commercials at the 100th. British Pound shorts are covering: +27,199 net, with the z-score moving from -1.95 to -1.45. Both carry Rebound risk (up). Orange Juice also holds Rebound risk (up) at the 8th percentile.
- ▸Biggest swings sit in the long end of the curve. Ultra 10Y Note rose 25 points to the 66th percentile (+58,069). US 30Y Bond rose 12 points (+45,438). Ultra Bond fell 13 points (-49,509). Russell 2000 rose 22 points to the 47th percentile (+18,443).
- ▸Two signals dropped off. Soybeans lost Reversal risk (down) after specs cut 34,256 contracts and fell 16 points to the 75th percentile. Cocoa lost Rebound risk (up) at the 12th percentile.
What's next: Watch whether Fed Funds specs keep adding or start unwinding. Track whether Natural Gas shorts begin covering. Check whether Gold and RBOB trimming deepens into Longs unwinding.
Bottom line: Positioning risk is concentrated in Fed Funds, Nasdaq 100 and Euro. Extremes can persist, so price confirmation matters before treating any of these as a turn.
Markets in this report: Heating Oil · RBOB Gasoline · Natural Gas · Gold · Silver · Soybeans · Orange Juice · Fed Funds · Ultra 10Y Note · Ultra Bond · Euro · British Pound · Nasdaq 100 · Russell 2000
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Legacy report (futures and options combined). Positioning ranked against the last 5 years of weekly reports. Positioning describes risk, not timing.