ECB: Hike or Hold Hinges on Core Inflation

The ECB's next move is finely balanced. Lower energy prices have eased headline inflation since the June meeting, yet even the staff's milder scenario shows core inflation peaking around 2.6% and staying above target through 2028. Why it matters: With the Sintra forum underway, the September decision turns on incoming core inflation — and the probability-weighted path sits below market pricing, especially for 2027. ECB...